David Collyer

Australia’s Magic Pudding

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The price of allowing FHBs to access superannuation creates some real winners: existing landowners, banks and the handful of buyers able to buy before the land-price jaws inevitably snap shut again. Everyone else loses – now and in retirement.

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The Senate Housing Affordability Inquiry: Prosper’s submission

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Australia has blown a land bubble of immense size.  This troubling reality has finally come to the attention of the Senate and obliged it to examine the matter. Prosper Australia’s submission to the Senate Housing Affordability inquiry examines nine key economic measures of housing affordability and finds all at or near historic highs.  Rather than housing […]

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AHURI is ‘Home Alone’

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  In an extraordinary outburst, the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute has today embraced planning constraints on urban subdivision, elevating ‘developer certainty’ over the risk – heaven forbid! – of oversupply. I kid you not. “While it is almost impossible to untangle the many influences on house prices in any jurisdiction (e.g. local desirability, […]

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Englobo IV: Land, Land, everywhere but not a place to sit

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Victorian Planning Minister Matthew Guy has been out this week energetically pointing to fresh ‘land releases’ around Melbourne.  Growth, or the illusion of growth, is a powerful sedative that buys contentment and political support.  He will bang this drum hard. Plan Melbourne – the Napthine government’s vision for development – forecasts a Melbourne of 6.5 […]

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Marvelous Melbourne, Magical Margins

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    The weighted net annual rate of return on land investment in Melbourne 1880-92 was a remarkably high 34.6 per cent, peaking at 78.3 per cent in 1887, according to a fascinating paper researcher Philip Soos has unearthed Rates of Return on Melbourne Land Investment 1880-92  by doctoral candidate Ron Silberberg[i] of Monash University […]

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Kohler condemns expensive land

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Alan Kohler is out this morning on Business Spectator with a big swipe at Conservative state governments.  Yes, that is conservative with a capital ‘C’. He sees at last the destruction the cost of land is wreaking from Port Hedland to Hobart. The high price of land in Australia is one of the reasons businesses […]

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Stamp Duty stifles labor mobility

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The Productivity Commission is out with a major study that recommends ending Stamp Duty on conveyances in favor of a land value tax to avoid trapping people in their homes when better jobs beckon elsewhere. The Geographic Labor Mobility report examines the match between skills and employment – or more exactly, where these mismatch.   A […]

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On the edge of realty (sic)

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AHURI published Friday an important new research paper ‘The edges of home ownership’ about churn in the property market that deserves our close scrutiny and debate. Wood, Ong et al compare the UK and Australian experience of those leaving and reentering home ownership using HILDA and two consecutive UK longitudinal studies. “…across the first decade […]

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Undertows drown strong swimmers metres from the beach

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The ANZ property economics team is out in the AFR today with a bold prediction of a rise in house prices. ANZ’s David Cannington is one of the most clear-eyed economists in Australian property and this forecast must be taken seriously. As usual, the devil is in the detail. He sees no pick up in […]

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Melbourne is planning to fail

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The Victorian government today released its metropolitan planning strategy Plan Melbourne at an industry seminar in the Melbourne convention centre. It puts in place the preconditions for a city that is: • Economically divided • Highly livable for those with the price of entry to quality suburbs • Home for the rest in apartments or […]

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