recession

Greybeard and the Hipsters

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It has been so long since the last recession 1990-91 that anyone who experienced it in business or the workforce is an old white guy – they are at best in their late 40’s and the beard sprouts grey. Let me give you some human insights, hipsters. Recession is like drought – a money drought. […]

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Understanding Cause and Effect

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Reposted from Bryan Kavanagh’s thedepression.org.au, an excellent source of dissident economic analysis. It helps that he is correct. If you jump off the top of a tall building, you’ll go splat at the bottom: that’s simple physics. We are told economic laws are not as certain as those of physics, but this isn’t so. It’s […]

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Australia has over 125,000 excess houses

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photo credit: Dean Terry 5 August 2011 MELBOURNE:- “Australia’s housing undersupply myth has just been exposed. We have overbuilt more than the USA,” Prosper Australia Campaign Manager David Collyer said today. “Prosper calculates Australia now has over 125,000 excess dwellings. “Fresh analysis of ABS data by Philip Soos for Prosper Australia and comparison with peer […]

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Lessons from Manhattan

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photo credit: atomicshark “The devil is in the details.” German Proverb A fascinating paper on Manhattan real estate in the 1920-39 era shows why property went down, stayed down and didn’t recover in real terms until 1960. ‘Real Estate Prices During the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression’ by Nicholas and Scherbina makes a chilling […]

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Can You Smell the Fear?

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On Tuesday, SQM Research released their forecast for house price movements this year. Louis Christopher is as dour as a maiden aunt.

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The pain in falling land prices

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photo credit: Travis S. The US housing market is a living hell.  Homeowners are being boiled alive. The price of land was bid up to staggering multiples of incomes, until it no longer made sense to buy a house. And then the trend turned, hard and fast. One in five US mortgages is ‘underwater’: the […]

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Dear Australia, the world is watching, waiting for our bubble to burst

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  photo credit: robertivanc The great property speculation game is over in America and Europe.  The music has stopped. Forty years of steadily increasing pressure has been released.  Houses are worth a fraction of what people paid in better times, while the giant mortgages they took on remain. Meanwhile, Australia parties on.  We play the […]

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The Tide Turns. The Media Awakes.

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photo credit: midlander1231   For too long, the media eagerly reported the property spruikers’ claim ‘prices only go higher’. This ‘truth’ turned homeowners into speculators and led a whole generation of first home buyers to commit to enormous mortgages they will only pay off after thirty years of unrelenting sacrifice. This week the public story […]

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Six Factors to Flip Negative Gearing into Negative Equity – Someone’s Going to Get Hurt

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  The Australian Tax Office has released figures on the extent of negative gearing in Australia ahead of the Henry Tax Review. This is no accident. They are preparing the ground for Ken Henry’s changes. The picture drawn is not pretty: it shows the nation’s ‘aspirational’ landlords, heavily weighted with borrowings, perched on a twig, […]

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The Geithner Plan = 40% of income for a right to a piece of land on which to stand.

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photo credit: country_boy_shane At least Timothy Geithner is showing a little spunk with his new shared equity plan. The government puts in effectively 93%, and the lucky bankers chosen put in just 7%. How does it work? Both the government and the bankers put in 7% equity, then the government lends the other 86%. When […]

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