Prosper Australia has released a major new paper by Catherine Cashmore, The Land Cycle, warning that Australia is in the late stages of a historically recurring land price cycle.
The paper presents a long-form, narrative-driven analysis of how land values move in identifiable cycles, arguing that these patterns are both measurable and consistently overlooked in mainstream economic thinking and policy.
The research suggests Australia is now in the later phase of such a cycle.
“Land price cycles are not random,” said Catherine Cashmore, author of The Land Cycle. “They follow patterns that have repeated over decades. When those patterns are ignored, the consequences are borne by households, small businesses, and the broader economy.”
The paper argues that land is a “missing variable” in many conventional models of housing and macroeconomics, despite playing a central role in shaping credit growth, inequality, and economic stability.
“Those who understand the land cycle — typically well-resourced investors and institutions — are often able to time decisions and benefit,” Ms Cashmore said. “But for ordinary homebuyers and renters, the cycle can mean paying more at the peak and bearing the brunt of any downturn.”
Prosper Australia highlights increasing risks if current settings remain unchanged.
“This is about foresight, not alarmism,” said Rayna Fahey, Executive Director of Prosper Australia. “When we fail to tax unearned gains from land, we encourage speculation and rent-seeking that drive damaging booms and busts. Housing is too important to leave exposed to those shocks.”
Prosper Australia is calling for greater awareness of land cycles among policymakers, institutions, and the public, alongside practical steps to reduce the harm associated with speculative swings.
“Governments have tools to reduce the damage,” Fahey said. “But only if they understand that land price speculation has historically destabilised the productive sectors of the economy – as we are seeing today in Australia.
“Shifting taxes off earned and onto unearned incomes will help stabilise the economy, limit rent-seeking behaviour, and protect households from avoidable financial stress.”
