Death in Newlyn Harbour #1
Creative Commons License photo credit: Ennor

17 November 2011

MELBOURNE:- The number of unsold properties in Melbourne has risen another 6.2 per cent in the last month, following a 20.4 per cent rise earlier, and an 18 per cent rise the month before that.

“’Stale Stock’ on the market is up a net 51 per cent in three months. These houses have been offered for sale, inspected by buyers and are left on the shelf. Buyers are saying ‘not at that price’ and just walking away.” Prosper Australia Campaign Manager David Collyer said today.

“Equally, estate agents are ruthlessly asking whether prospective vendors are flexible on price. Every agent already has a pile of stale listings and cranky vendors who insist they ferret out and sell to the very last ‘Greater Fool’ at the old price. Agents know this species is already extinct.

In the widest Melbourne and environs, 90,659 houses have been on the market for more than 6o days and remain unsold, up from 85,313 last month, 70,856 two months ago and 60,045 three months ago. In seven months ‘Stale Stock’ in Melbourne postcodes 3000-3207 has tripled from 19,800 to 58,429 properties.

“These properties are beginning to smell. The only thing likely to attract buyers is significant price cuts because of this towering imbalance in supply and demand.

“This month’s cut in interest rates of 0.25 per cent won’t make the slightest difference,” Collyer said. “That shaves a mere $60 per month from the average loan.

Prosper tracks Melbourne’s ‘Stale Stock’ figures – property on the market for more than sixty days and unsold – as a quick indicator of change to the supply and demand equation and as a price change predictor. The raw data is from SQM Research.

“At a moderate $450,000 per house, there is now $40.8 billion in capital tied up in unwanted Melbourne housing just sitting there.

Notable hotspots include postcode 3021 St Albans (1115 stale properties), 3023 Caroline Springs (1346), 3024 Wyndham Vale (1413), 3029 Tarneit/Truganina/ Hoppers Crossing (3512), 3030 Point Cook/Werribee (4651), 3037 Sydenham (1079), 3064 Roxburgh Park/Craigieburn (2007), 3076 Epping (1375), 3175 Dandenong (1206), 3199 Frankston South (1350), 3337 Melton (2612), 3338 Melton West (1523), 3754 Doreen/Mernda (3007), 3805 Narre Warren (1189), 3806 Berwick (1101), 3810 Pakenham (2666), 3977 Cranbourne (3370) and 3000 Melbourne (1496).

‘Stale Stock’ has risen in every Melbourne postcode without exception.

“The volume and price trends are entirely consistent with Prosper’s prediction land prices will halve in real terms over 5-6 years, of which nearly a year has already passed. Don’t Buy Now!”>ENDS

Media comment: David Collyer