Stale Stock Stacking Up
The number of homes offered and unsold for more than two months – known as stale sales – has ballooned across Melbourne, according to an analysis by Prosper Australia of figures released by SQM Research.
“Don’t touch them! Maintain the Buyers Strike!” Prosper Australia campaign manager David Collyer warned first home buyers today. “The stock of available properties has ballooned, but vendors’ price expectations have not shifted. Not one inch!
In Craigieburn and Roxborough Park in Melbourne’s northern suburbs, a favourite setting for first home buyers, there are now 638 two-month-unsold homes. In all of 2010, there were only 550 properties sold in the area. There is a year’s stock sitting on the market.
The same phenomenon can be seen in the south west at Tarneit with 1066 two-month-unsold homes and Point Cook with 1634 two-month-unsold. Last year there were only 780 properties sold in Point Cook – there is now 2 years supply on the shelf.
Caroline Springs has an indigestible 485 two-month-unsold houses on offer.
In Docklands (325 two-month-unsold) and Southbank (311), the smart set are leaving apartments in the hands of the developers.
“Most sensibly priced property will clear in less than 2 months,” Collyer said. “While there are always a handful of sellers holding out for a higher price, this enormous overhang points to other causes and will take a long time to clear.
“These properties have had advertising money spent on them and round after round of open for inspections. Plus the agents have offered them to every prospective buyer in their little black book, including the vast pool of negative gearers.
“Clearly, housing supply exceeds demand in Melbourne.
Elsewhere today, the ABS released the February Housing Finance statistics, which show loans for the purchase of newly erected dwelling slumping 12 per cent in February. In the past three months, loans are down almost 36 per cent – the biggest three monthly fall in records going back 32 years.
“We are witnessing a major change in sentiment toward housing,” Collyer said. “Buyers no longer have the sun in their eyes. They reject the lie that buying a home is a financial investment. About time, too.
Collyer reiterated that he is not today calling the bursting of The Great Australian Land Bubble, but does warn it is “imminent”.