Posts Tagged ‘GFC’

Anatomy of the GFC

Friday, July 3rd, 2009



Date: Thursday July 23rd
Time: 6.30pm
Venue: Frank Halkyard Library, 1/27 Hardware Lane, Melbourne
Speaker: Bryan Kavanagh, Research Associate, LVRG

Greenshoots? How bad WILL the Global Financial Crisis be? Why did our economists fail us? What’s the future of real estate? Come and hear Bryan Kavanagh dissect “The Anatomy of the Global Financial Crisis” and explain where it all went wrong.

Kavanagh, a valuer who worked in the Australian Taxation Office and the Commonwealth Bank before co-founding his own valuation practice in 1997, has the runs on the board. He forecast the GFC in the British journal “Geophilos” in 2001, and published a study of Australia’s real estate cycles, “Unlocking the Riches of Oz”, in 2007.

Come and hear Kavanagh’s latest interpretations in the warm atmospheres of our Hardware Lane abode.

RSVP appreciated
Gold coin donation to cover drinks and nibbles

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Over Valuations and the GFC

Thursday, January 29th, 2009
What have you been reading this summer?
Creative Commons License photo credit: rsepulveda



The property industry lobby’s reliance on ‘friendly valuations’ is often a source of contention in the valuation industry. The Australian today raises issues with Experts Question Boom Lending

Property analyst Michael Matusik yesterday joined the chorus against the proposal yesterday.

He said it was unreasonable for taxpayers to be forced to bail out property developers — many of whom had made enormous profits during the boom.

“Property development is a risk,” he said.

“What has happened in global financial markets may have been unforseen but it’s still an element of risk.”

Prominent property researcher Bill Morris, author of the Midwood Investment Report, said the proposal was “throwing good money after bad” and could further exacerbate an acute oversupply of commercial property.

This is the big sleeper! With over $2.6 trillion in goodwill on US balance sheets, one wonders how much investment property has also been over-valued to assist balance sheets and leveraging. Friendly valuations enable moguls to borrow more money to buy more land. Now these blue sky predictions have turned sour and developers have stretched themselves to breaking point, we the TAXPAYER, are asked to bail them out.

How those committed to market principles can turn so quickly to assist those who donate such huge amounts to their campaigns is astounding. Lobbyocracy is threatening the existence of both the financial and environmental life support systems we so rely on.

The point of contention is that the property market has over-supplied, based on inaccurate figures aimed at marketing scarcity to provide what is really pursued in property – capital gains rather than sustainable yields.

Land prices need to fall back to affordable levels before the economy will kick start again. Bailing out those with massive commercial properties lying dormant will only constrain the economy further. Funding them to build even more property is a short term solution to a long term headache.

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GFC: Bankers and sub-primers just scapegoats

Tuesday, January 6th, 2009



The Bank of England now admits that the UK government failed to provide it with the tools needed to deal with boom/bust, according to an interview tonight on BBC’s Panorama programme. The missing tool was tax policy.

“That’s why we can say that the global recession did not originate in the US and was not caused by bankers or sub-prime lending” says Fernando Scornik Gerstein – heading up an international organisation of leading economic reformers. The group argues government policy in this global economic crisis is barking up the wrong tree.

“The real culprit”, says Scornik Gerstein, “is how our property rules deliver windfall gains to property owners and encourage a culture of speculation on our homes and resources”. Scornik Gerstein is president of the IU, an international union of organisations that advocate a radically different approach to the current economic crisis.

The IU is concerned that current strategies for addressing the systemic crisis – far from placing a floor on the downturn – will exacerbate the instabilities that characterise markets around the world and set the scene for the next major recession.

In a BBC interview tonight, deputy governor of the Bank of England, Sir John Gieve, tells Robert Peston: “We need to develop something which… directly addresses the financial cycle and prevents the financial cycle and the credit cycle getting out of hand.” (1)

“There’s only one way to do that” says Scornik Gerstein. “A strategy does exist that could moderate the downturn while laying the foundations for sustained growth in the future. But that policy is not being applied. Instead” – he says – “governments are applying shallow bail-out/pump priming measures that are futile at best, and dangerous at worst.”

The IU argues it is property markets, in particular land markets, that cause boom/bust and that brought the financial sector to its knees in 2008 and will bring the real economy to its knees in 2009. The heart of the problem, it argues, is a system where homeowners, in a flourishing economy, are able to cash in on the increasing value of their locations. “The problem is now the same all over the world”, says Scornik Gerstein: “gambling on house prices has gone global.”

The remedy advocated by the IU is a radical review of how governments raise their taxes. “The right way to raise public revenue is to collect the values actually created by society and nature” says Scornik Gerstein – “that’s much preferable to taxing work, savings and enterprise”. The new green tax agenda like pollution charging is an example of the approach, he says: “it’s the idea of taxing bads, not goods”. But above all the IU advocates the abandoning – or at least the reducing – of traditional taxes like income tax, and the introduction of land value taxation. “LVT takes out the speculative element from the housing market” says Scornik Gerstein: “and it’s now, with values collapsing, that’s the time to act. Land value taxation is the single policy move capable of rescuing the global economy from what will otherwise be the worst recession since the Depression of the 1930s”.

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