Archive for the ‘Commentary’ Category

Lessons from Manhattan

Tuesday, June 28th, 2011

photo credit: atomicshark “The devil is in the details.” German Proverb A fascinating paper on Manhattan real estate in the 1920-39 era shows why property went down, stayed down and didn’t recover in real terms until 1960. ‘Real Estate Prices During the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression’ by Nicholas and Scherbina makes a chilling [...]

Take your positions, please

Thursday, June 9th, 2011

A debate is a chance to crunch opposing views. Strong ideas advance and poor ones are discarded. Good. But when participants and audience have already made up their minds, fresh argument goes nowhere. The Money Institute’s big debate in Sydney on Tuesday asked – Will the Australian Property Market Crash? The audience were dragged over [...]

Hit over the head with a plasma screen

Tuesday, May 31st, 2011

Have you noticed? Owning a modern flat screen television proves you are not saving every day in every way – the sacrifice essential for home ownership. This theme is raised again and again by the shills and trolls pouring venom into the debates on the blogs and internet sites devoted to housing affordability. Puzzling, until [...]

Don’t be surprised if the GDP is shocking

Tuesday, May 31st, 2011

photo credit: Jasmic Gavin R. Putland in today’s Crikey Enewsletter: Without the benefit of reading today’s balance-of-payments figures from the ABS, I’m expecting tomorrow’s GDP figure for the March quarter to be worse than the median forecast of mainstream economists. Probably much worse. As Bloomberg reports this morning, the median forecast is for a contraction. [...]

Can You Smell the Fear?

Thursday, May 26th, 2011

On Tuesday, SQM Research released their forecast for house price movements this year. Louis Christopher is as dour as a maiden aunt.

Australia’s fatal flaw: Negative Gearing

Wednesday, May 25th, 2011

“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” – Warren Buffett, Chairman’s letter 2001. Negatively geared property investors are exposing themselves, the banks and every Australian citizen to capital destruction, a highly infectious disease that leaves permanent scars. Negative geared property is the glaring weakness in Australia’s deflating housing market. [...]

Tinkering on the Edge

Friday, May 20th, 2011

photo credit: flatworldsedge Economic Answers Way off the Mark by Karl Williams Another neoclassical excuse-maker has just hit the airwaves, claiming to identify the causes of the GFC and even hailing Alan Greenspan as the prophet who was ignored as the GFC loomed! Once again, the fact that our economic system allows land speculation – [...]

Speculative Vacancies Twist the Supply and Demand Pretzel

Tuesday, May 17th, 2011

Australians debate property prices without end. Fortunes and future happiness pivot on the balance of supply and demand. Yet good statistics about this crucial matter are rare. There are many heavily geared investors in residential real estate cozying up alongside the majority of ordinary citizens who just need somewhere to live. Both groups are desperate [...]

Ghosting Fiscal Conservatism

Monday, May 16th, 2011

Housing auction clearance rates are being over stated to protect ‘the market’. Why has our financial data been distorted to suit those ‘in the know’?

Supporting the Have Not’s

Friday, May 13th, 2011

Supporting the Have Not’s – Why the Home Buyer’s Strike must continue.